The impact of mobile growth on web advertising. Is Android bad for Google?

alternate textGoogle and Facebook can’t turn off the mobile deluge

I just posted on TechCrunch. The article focuses on the Facebook S1 filing and in particular on the risks section that covers the growth of the mobile internet and its potential impact on the web business model.

Facebook itself has been very clear that its advertising revenues are exclusively derived from its web site, and also that an increasing amount of its usage comes from mobile in general and smart phones in particular.

Buried in the article is this point:

Google’s present – and Facebook’s future – involves the painful fact that the very success of mobile platforms in helping human beings be productive, on the go, has a negative impact on the desktop-based advertising programs of the past 10 years. Mobile growth impacts web advertising revenues, except of course for Apple who make money from hardware and software and so benefits from these trends. The reason is simple. We do less ad-centric activities on mobile than we did on the web. And we are less likely to click away on an ad when we are focused on a specific goal on a largely single window device.

The implication of this point is that, absent an advertising solution for mobile, Google’s success in distributing Android, as well as the rise of the iPhone, are directly damaging to Google’s legacy business model. Now, it isn’t as if anybody can turn the mobile internet off or slow its growth. So Google has no option but to be a significant player in mobile, and has no option but to try and drive the revenues it derives from mobile harder than the pace of slow down in web based revenues that result from the trend. But to accomplish that Google, and Facebook will need to innovate in advertising. Web based display ads, text ads and others are really not able to translate effectively to mobile without seriusly undermining the user experience.

This is one of the areas we are focused on at just.me.

Got Quoted in the Wall Street Journal

Got Quoted in the Wall Street Journal. That doesn’t happen every day! :-)

Here it is:

“The funding of mobile first companies will increase significantly.” — Keith Teare, general partner, Archimedes Labs

Mike “launches” Uncrunched

My good pal Mike has a new blog at uncrunched.com. Check it out.

Cloud based services – the future of the Internet

Fred Wilson has a response today to Eric Schmidt’s declaration in Edinburgh that Google+ is an “identity service”. He asks and answers his own question.

“whom Google built this service for? You or them. And the answer to why you need to use your real name in the service is because they need you to.”

Of course Facebook is also an identity service. Facebook Connect is the means of distributing it. And of course Facebook too is built using real names because “they need you to”.

At this level FaceBook and Google have much in common, and both are vying for us to use them for online authentication. Facebook is far ahead of course.

Late yesterday I posted an opinion piece as a guest author on TechCrunch. It is about the uncertain future of web services as mobile devices proliferate globally. We will soon all have awesome identity machines in our pocket. They will be capable of being used to authenticate us (even using 2 step authentication). Any cloud-based 3rd party identity system will be unnecessary.

The future of identity is distributed, under user control, and owned and managed by the user from their device. It will be capable of supporting anonymity and real names and will be able to be trusted by sites requiring you to authenticate. The idea of any 3rd party dictating how you can present yourself online will no longer be applicable. Of course, it still has to be built…..

Having said that, there is absolutely nothing wrong with Google and/or Facebook building an identity system that dictates how we present ourselves. Our choice is to use it or not…..We don’t have to.

Quixey adds Eric Schmidt’s Fund and Archimedes Ventures to investor line up

Yesterday, Bay Area start-up Quixey announced that Eric Schmidt’s Innovation Endeavors fund had invested in the company.

I’m pleased to say that along with my partners in Archimedes Ventures we have also joined the roster of investors in the company.

All the best to Tomer Kagan and his team as they execute. The technology they have built is state of the art. Their team is fabulous. The world is theirs to grab.

Exciting times.

Sign up for the beta here
TechCrunch story here
GigaOm story here.

After Chirp, is Twitter related investing still smart?

Robert Scoble cornered Ron Conway in the hallway at the Chirp conference yesterday and in the aftermath of Twitter acquiring Tweetie, and announcing their own URL shortening service, asked the big question. Is it still sensible to invest in companies seeking to expand or enhance the use of Twitter in some way?

Ron is unequivocal in his answer.

For what it’s worth I think Ron is right…. as usual :-)

TechMeme Link here

Popular Science Mag implements Mag+ vision

Mag+ live with Popular Science+ from Bonnier on Vimeo.

No comment really.

I do think video and audio are missing from this vision, but it is a great first step.

seriouslyipad.com

Many of you will be familiar with the project I have been incubating over the past 18 months or so. s.erious.ly. It is predicated on two ideas. One is the trend (now almost complete) of the deportalization of internet content. The second is the success of companies like Glam Media and Sugar Publishing is proving the value of passion based content networks. Today, the 4th site in the group was launched – seriouslyipad. It is aggregating – in real time – all articles from a selection of highly rated sites about the iPad.

Feel free to subscribe, comment, or hang out…..

Internet and TV, are we at the tipping point?

Walt Mossberg today reviewed a couple of new technologies that allow you to beam video from a PC to a TV wirelessly. Pretty cool, but IMHO there is not a big demand for this.

More interesting is the discussion about whether we are at the tipping point between TV and the internet, where more and more people will get their video from the Internet.

In the video below Walt is a sceptic, but his colleague makes the point that the big TV companies have much to lose if we are close to that point, namely subscriber fees from Cable and Satellite.

Worth Viewing

The future of publishing and reading?

A nice vision of the near future from BERG. It is focused on Magazines but makes me think about web content more. What is the role of a web site, a web page, a post and a tweet in this world?

The UI concepts are nice, but functionally limited. And the discovery of content doesn’t seem to exist, it assumes subscriptions to publications – which I’m sure will only be part of the story, and a small part at that.

Take a look yourself:

Mag+ from Bonnier on Vimeo.

Hat Tip to CrunchGear

Discussion at TechMeme

Murdoch, Huffington and the future of News

Huffington and Mathias Döpfner (CEO of German media empire Axel Springer) discuss the future of news. The moderator is Christine Ockrent, CEO of France 24, a TV broadcasting company.

In the context of Rupert Murdoch declaring his intent to take his content out of Google this is a timely exchange.

Clearly there are many sides to this issue, but – bottom line – the cost base of old media is not sustainable, and the news gathering possibilities of the distributed masses together with curation and aggregation present a powerful alternative.

I recommend anybody interested in the future of news and aggregation spend the 50 minutes watching this.

Deportalization and Internet Advertising II

Glam hired a new guy today. Techcrunch, VentureBeat and PaidContent all posted about it.

All of the reporting on this hire focus on Glam’s coup in getting their man, and on their profitability heading into Q4. There is little in the way of analysis, which is probably quite reasonable on a news-filled Monday morning here on the West Coast..

As TechCrunch’s Jason Kincaid reports:

Glam Media has scored a major senior hire, landing Josh Jacobs, Yahoo’s Vice President & GM Advertising Technology Platforms who currently runs Yahoo’s entire display ad platform and previously ran the portal’s publisher network. Jacobs will be joining Glam as Senior Vice President of Brand Advertising Products & Marketing, where he’ll run all of Glam’s brand advertising products, as well as marketing and communications. This is a major win for Glam, which has shown strong growth through the economic downturn as it eats away marketshare from the likes of Yahoo, MSN, and AOL.

However, there is a more strategic conclusion to draw from Glam’s recent trajectory and from this hire in particular. Glam is unique in having successfully built a new model that is far more focused on the evolving landscape of publishing and reading habits than any of its competitors. Samir Arora – Glam’s CEO – grasped very early that the growth in the number of publishers on the Internet would lead to a changing landscape for advertisers. By grasping the trend early he has succeeded in building a most impressive business. A woman’s content site, with virtually no original content, where the majority of the traffic is not on glam.com, but is on the several hundred publisher sites that make up the Glam network. By realizing that the audience is already there, and that the business is to take advertising to it, rather than to seek to capture it for a destination portal, Arora has figured out how to grow a large business, even in hard times.

I wrote about deportalization quite some time ago, and spelled out its implications. As we move from the era of deportalization into the new era characterized by the real time stream, Glam are positioned to continue to grow. Display advertising is a major element in Glam’s strategy and rightly so. High value audiences are found clustered around all major topics. Ad networks typically fail to realize the value of those audiences, or adequately facilitate a brand from engaging with them. Glam is simply a small indication of the potential for passion-focused distributed advertising.