…it ain’t nobody’s business but my own :-)
Internet and TV, are we at the tipping point?
Walt Mossberg today reviewed a couple of new technologies that allow you to beam video from a PC to a TV wirelessly. Pretty cool, but IMHO there is not a big demand for this. More interesting is the discussion about whether we are at the tipping point between TV and the internet, where more and more people will get their video from the Internet. In the video below Walt is a sceptic, but his ...
Deportalization and Internet Advertising
Glam hired a new guy today. Techcrunch, VentureBeat and PaidContent all posted about it. All of the reporting on this hire focus on Glam's coup in getting their man, and on their profitability heading into Q4. There is little in the way of analysis, which is probably quite reasonable on a news-filled Monday morning here on the West Coast.. As TechCrunch's Jason Kincaid reports: Glam Media h...
Real Time Streams
John Borthwick has captured in words what many have been grappling with in a less articulate way for about 18 months. The new paradigm we need to think about the internet has finally emerged. This snippet outlines the broad trend: Start with this constant, real time, flowing stream of data getting published, republished, annotated and co-opt’d across a myriad of sites and tools. The s...
In Defense of “nothing”
Columnist Henry Porter is generally considered to be a wise observer of the human condition. Today, in an article in the UK Guardian owned Sunday, The Observer, he blew it ..... badly. As a newspaper man he ought to have been aware of his almost certain bias and perhaps counted to ten before pushing "send". And, given that he didn't,  his editor should have saved him from himself after the fact,...
RSS has peaked! – Forrester. Nope, it hasn’t! – Me
Forrester released a report today ($279 download if you want it). Titled "What's holding RSS back?" it claims that only 11% of Internet consumers use RSS and that those who have not don't understand it. Steve Rubel at Micro Persuasion responds that : "..while feed adoption may have crested the idea of online opt-in communications is just getting going. The Facebook newsfeed, Twitter and Frie...
OpenID and Data Portability
Nicolas Popp - a leading advocate of Open Identity and data solutions - posted on his VeriSign blog today following the rather heated discussions that have ensued since Google announced its Friend Connect product recently. Nico's employer - VeriSign - along with Microsoft, Yahoo, Google, AOL and others, is a member of the board of the OpenID foundation.Nico's primary argument (emphasis mine) is...
Google and the newspapers
Over the long labor day weekend Google announced a serious change in the way Google News will relate to the various wire services and the newspaper industry. The change could have a dramatic impact on the traffic Google News sends to newspaper web sites. There have been several commentaries on the developments and Techmeme has been a great source tracking them. The New York Times, ironica...

I’ve been “tagged”

Posted By: Keith Teare on December 27, 2006 in Internet, Strategy, Web 2.0 - Comments: No Comments »

As the title says I have been tagged by Dave Winer.

The rules say I now have to tell you 5 things you didn’t know about me and then tag five others.

So, here goes:

1. I am currently in St James, Cape Town, S Africa. It is a small area between Muizenberg and Fish Hoek (see map).
Cape Town Area
2. I own a home here – on Jacobs ladder.

3. My wife is South African – Gené McPherson. Born in Jo’burg. Her parents and one of her sisters live in Cape Town today. Gené was a co-founder of Cyberia [free subscription needed] (the worlds first Internet Café – London 1994. She was also VP Marketing at RealNames. She is now a Mom – and a great one.

4. We have a new son – born 4 November. Luke Graham Teare. This is the first time his grandparents have seen him and he them. Then again, it is pretty much the first time he has seen anything :-) .

5. I am the oldest son of 5 brothers and a sister. Two of my brothers died (one an his first year and one at 37). So there are 3 brothers and a sister remaining. My Mom is still alive  and living in Scarborough, North Yorkshire. She is 72 and I am 52. My brother Brian is CTO at cscape.com, which I started in 1983.

I am tagging Ivan Pope; Gabe Rivera; Auren Hoffman; Michael Tanne and Richard MacManus

The Pareto Principle is nonsense.

Posted By: Keith Teare on December 10, 2006 in Internet, Strategy, Web 2.0 - Comments: No Comments »

In response to the current discussion on Techmeme and TailRank hipmojo writes that the Pareto principle is in play on the internet and that no matter how much we want it to be otherwise 80% of online advertising will go to 20% of the web sites.

When the dust settles, the top 20% of websites will get 80% of ad revenues. It’s that simple. Portals might change in shape, form or nature, but whatever they represent loosely will still get the bulk of revenues and traffic.

With respect, that is nonsense. Since the advent of Google Adsense the shape of internet advertising spend has mirrored the flattening of traffic I speak of on the edgeio blog. Almost half of Google’s revenue comes from Adsense. And about 75% of the dollars earned through Adsense stay with the publishers whose sites the ads run on. Clearly the lions share of the money spent through Google is shared about 50-50 with the publishers in the “foothills”.

It may be worth listening to the Google Earnings calls on Earningscast to validate this.

That is why Google talks so much about “inventory”. That is, traffic from outside google.com. The size and cost of this inventory is a major variable and the need to grow it helps us to understand deals like the one with YouTube.

If you roll the clock back to the pre-Adsense days when DoubleClick ruled, and online advertising was only going to large sites, it is a huge change in monetization and traffic flows. Give Google credit for this.

One of the things my piece argues is that there is a new trend on top of this established one – publisher monetization of their own content through direct relationships to advertisers (job boards, sponsorships and Techmeme like ad units being examples).

Sure the portals are still big but the collective foothills are as big now, and will be a lot bigger in the future.

De-portalization and Internet revenues

Posted By: Keith Teare on December 9, 2006 in Internet, Strategy, Web 2.0, edgeio - Comments: 3 Comments »

Last week Fred Wilson did a post on a phenomena he called de-portalization. I think he is right on the money.

I just posted a piece on the edgeio blog that picks up on that theme and discusses the consequences of the trend.

The top 10 consequences are:

  1. The revenue growth that has characterized the Internet since 1994 will continue. But more and more of the revenue will be made in the foothills, not the mountains.
  2. If the major destination sites want to participate in it they will need to find a way to be involved in the traffic that inhabits the foothills.
  3. Widgets are a symptom of this need to embed yourself in the distributed traffic of the foothills.
  4. Portals that try to widgetize the foothills will do less well than those who truly embrace distributed content, but better than those who ignore the trends.
  5. Every pair of eyeballs in the foothills will have many competing advertisers looking to connect with them. Publishers will benefit from this.
  6. Because of this competition the dollar value of the traffic that is in the foothills will be (already is) vastly more than a generic ad platform like Google Adsense or Yahoo’s Panama can realize. Techcrunch ($180,000 last month according to the SF Chronicle) is an example of how much more money a publisher who sells advertising and listings to target advertisers can make than when in the hands of an advertiser focused middleman like Google.
  7. Publisher driven revenue models will increasingly replace middlemen. There will be no successful advertiser driven models in the foothills, only publisher centric models. Successful platform vendors will put the publisher at the center of the world in a sellers market for eyeballs. There will be more publishers able to make $180,000 a month.
  8. Portals will need to evolve into platform companies in order to participate in a huge growth of Internet revenues. Service to publishers will be a huge part of this. Otherwise they will end up like Infospace, or maybe Infoseek. Relics of the past.
  9. Search however will become more important as content becomes more distributed. Yet it will command less and less a proportion of the growing Internet traffic.
  10. Smart companies will (a) help content find traffic by enabling its distribution. (b) help users find content that is widely dispersed by providing great search. (c) help the publishers in the rising foothills maximize the value of their publications.

Discussion

Kevin Burton Techmeme Mike Arrington Syntagma Dan Farber at ZDNet Mark Evans Fred Wilson Ivan Pope at Snipperoo Tech Tailrank Collaborative Thinking David Black Surfing the Chaos Ben Griffiths Dave Winer (great pics) Kosso’s Braingarden Dizzy Thinks Mark Evans

edgeio – is becoming a search engine, for “stuff”

Posted By: Keith Teare on December 4, 2006 in Search,, edgeio - Comments: No Comments »

Over at the edgeio blog I have posted the first insight into where we are going with edgeio search. It has been about 9 months since we launched edgeio.

We now have a dedicated search team and this is their first push. It is not yet perfect but it is a vast improvement on what was there before (also significantly better than Googlebase search – which is a primary comparison for us).

As the post says we have decided to go with the flow to some extent. Many listings based sites are uploading their listings to edgeio and we are providing search traffic back to them. We are being used as a listings search service by companies with listings and by users looking for listings. A “search engine for stuff” if you will.

Based on our experience there seems to be demand for a search engine that indexes actual items/services/offers/wants/needs. edgeio wants to become that. Try a google search for “Sony Vaio” and compare it to an edgeio search. We show “stuff” (Sony Vaio’s actually) and they show sites about stuff, but no “stuff”. That’s the opening we see. Clearly Googlebase is focused there also, but it is clear that the complexities of owning google.com and its algorithm clash with the need for Googlebase to have its data seen. edgeio actually does better on Google than Googlebase (see examples below).

Let me know what you think. Our first search algorithm is live on edgeio.com now. We have a lot more to do (we know) but its a good first step.

PS

Oh and as promised here are some examples of edgeio’s Google performance. Basically, a secondary effect of the way edgeio is being used is that we have improved rank on google.com for searches that we have lots of listings for. The effect of this is that our listing partners get more traffic. As our listings grow, from thousands of publishers (currently about 6000) that trend should continue.

Here are some Google searches to show that:

Sponsorship

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